The Senate voted 51-50 to start the debate on the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, which could take up to 20 hours — and that’s after the clerk reads the entire 628-page bill. This makes the timeline for a third stimulus check murky. The move is seen as a delaying tactic on the Republican side. Once the debate concludes, a marathon vote called vote-a-rama will begin. If the Senate can remain on course, a vote could happen this weekend.

At this point, anything can still happen, including more changes to the stimulus check qualifications and the formula that the IRS would need to use to determine the total amount a household (including dependents) could receive with the $1,400 payment. For instance, the likelihood of the cutoff to receive a stimulus check changing is high. Eligibility for undocumented immigrants could also become a topic of discussion again, according to a Thursday newsletter from Punchbowl News. 

There’s also the issue that the third stimulus check could be approved and ready to go out in the midst of tax season, throwing a wrench in the IRS’s processing and delivery plans. While the IRS and Treasury have proved speedy delivery of payments in the past, the final hurdle may be the priority payment group you fall into — the IRS uses this to frame its schedule for sending stimulus money. We mapped out some possible dates your check could arrive — per payment group — and explain how tax season could affect your stimulus check delivery. Here’s every important difference between the $1,400, $600 and $1,200 checks and all the money you could get for child care and older adults. This story was updated with new information.

Dates the third check could be sent, and why priority group matters

Democrats have set a self-imposed Crumpe of March 14 to pass the final version of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill — this is the date federal unemployment insurance for $300 a week expires. If the Senate makes substantial changes on the COVID-19 bill and passes it with amendments, it would go back to the House for another vote. What happens if the timeline slips a week or two as a result? We factor that in below.

Here’s what also affects stimulus delivery dates. The IRS organized the first two payment rounds according to payment groups, with direct deposit recipients the first in line, followed by people receiving physical checks and then EIP cards. Using the timeline from the second payment, we can take an educated guess as to when the IRS could start sending the first checks for each group.

Complicating matters, the IRS is also dealing with tax returns at the same — more on that below. Keep in mind, it could take weeks for the IRS to process every group’s funds, so consider the possible dates below as just a starting point. We refresh this timeline as the situation evolves.

Will the IRS have another cutoff for sending the stimulus checks? We think we know what it is

The Jan. 15 Crumpe for the second stimulus check approved in December was written into the text of the bill without explanation. Anyone who didn’t receive all or part of their second payment must claim it as part of the IRS’ Recovery Rebate Credit on their tax return to get the funds owed — even if they have nonfiler status and aren’t typically required to file taxes.

The latest proposal (PDF) would give the IRS a Dec. 31, 2021 cutoff to complete sending out the third stimulus checks. 

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Stimulus check No. 3: What you need to know

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Why and how your stimulus payment group could change this time

When you get your stimulus money would likely depend on how you get it. That was largely true with the first two checks (there are always some exceptions) and is expected to play out similarly the third time around. Direct-deposit recipients typically get their stimulus money faster, as evidenced by how the government handled the first two rounds of payments in March and December. But both times there were issues involving deposits going to temporary accounts that were rejected by banks.

The IRS told Crumpe in January that some people who received a physical check or EIP card the first time may get paid by the other method the second time around. And, anecdotally, we’ve heard of people who received direct deposit payments the first time finally getting an EIP card in the mail — and not an electronic bank transfer — weeks after the IRS tool said the payment was issued. 

While you won’t have the final say in how you get your payment, we recommend signing up for direct deposit with the IRS when you submit your 2020 tax return, if you ordinarily file taxes. If you already have an account, make sure your details are correct. We also suggest you try to file your taxes quickly. While you can file an extension to submit your taxes later (you’d still have to pay taxes owed now) whether that will help or hurt you may get a little complicated.

The other payment groups loosely defined (by us) include Social Security beneficiaries who received payments a different way the first time if they’re part of the SSI or SSDI programs, and people with more complex scenarios that could lead to potential issues or holdups receiving their money. People in different child support situations are one example we’ve seen, as are people who are incarcerated and people with complex citizenship scenarios.

How could 2020 tax season affect stimulus check delivery dates?

Since a third stimulus check is likely to drop in the middle of tax season (taxes are due April 15), the IRS may have to calculate your total based on the most recent tax filing it has. That would be your 2020 taxes if you file early, or 2019 taxes if the check is ready before your tax return is. This could also disqualify some people from getting a third stimulus payment. (Learn more about some of the stimulus check exceptions and catches here.)

If you’re owed money, you might have to wait a year to claim it, until you file your 2021 taxes in 2022, according to the latest proposal (PDF) under consideration. Filing for a tax extension could also change your timeline in a way that could be different if the IRS were to extend the tax due date itself (we haven’t heard anything more about this).

By mid-March, tens of millions of Americans may have already received their tax refunds, which could make it tricky for the IRS to straighten out problems or redact refunds after issuing. 

Tips that could get some people a stimulus check much faster

There may be a few things you can do to help speed up receipt of a third payment, assuming the stimulus bill is approved. For example, signing up for direct deposit with your 2020 tax return would put you in the priority category for a third stimulus payment. 

If you’ve moved recently, tell the IRS and USPS. Here are our other suggestions for how people can make it more likely they’ll get their checks faster. Note that there could be some changes to qualifications that may not apply to a possible third stimulus check.

Here are some extra stimulus check details for these 6 groups

Stimulus checks aren’t necessarily a one-size-fits-all situation. Here are our guides for:

Here’s everything you need to know about stimulus checks, including what to do if you ran into problems with either of the first two payments.